Bitcoin holders cashed out big. On May 4, they realized daily profits of 14,600 BTC, the highest level since December 2025 when Bitcoin topped $90,000. The digital asset has climbed 37% since early April, fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and surging demand in perpetual futures markets. It’s the strongest performance since early December 2025.
The profit-taking surge reflects a major shift in market sentiment. For the first time since early 2026, Bitcoin holders are experiencing net profits of 20,000 BTC on a 30-day basis. That’s a complete reversal from the net losses seen in February and March, when the market was bleeding. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio has stayed above 1.00 since mid-April, meaning recent buyers are profitable. Not everyone, but enough to matter.
But there’s a catch.
Rally Shows Cracks Beneath Surface
The 30-day net profit of 20,000 BTC sounds good until you compare it to real bull markets. During previous rallies, those numbers hit 130,000 to 200,000 BTC. The current figure sits well below that range, suggesting the market hasn’t fully transitioned into a bull phase. Spot demand remains subdued compared to earlier in 2026, even though it’s improved slightly. Perpetual futures demand continues to expand, driving the speculative environment that kicked off the rally in April. But futures-driven rallies can unwind fast.
Unrealized profits are the highest since June 2025. That’s both good and bad. Good because holders are sitting on gains. Bad because those gains create an incentive to sell. Historical analysis shows that elevated profit-taking often precedes either a market consolidation or a local peak. The shift from net losses to net profits is significant, but it doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing ahead. Traders are watching these dynamics closely, trying to figure out if the rally can sustain itself or if a correction is coming.
Exchange inflows remain muted, which means holders aren’t rushing to dump coins on exchanges yet. That’s a positive sign. But the combination of high unrealized profits and weak spot demand creates a precarious balance. If sentiment shifts, investors could race to lock in gains, triggering a sharp correction. No distributional peak is evident yet, so the market hasn’t reached the kind of frothy top that marks the end of a cycle. Still, the warning signs are there.
Futures vs Spot Tells Different Story
Perpetual futures markets have played a huge role in Bitcoin’s recent climb. Demand in that segment has expanded steadily since April, maintaining the speculative energy that pushed prices higher. Futures traders are betting on continued upside, using leverage to amplify their positions. It’s a risky game, but it’s working for now. The problem is that futures-driven rallies can reverse quickly if sentiment sours or if a wave of liquidations hits the market.
Spot demand tells a different story. While it’s improved from the lows earlier in 2026, it remains contracted compared to previous bull markets. Spot buyers are the ones who typically provide the foundation for sustained rallies, because they’re buying and holding rather than trading on leverage. The lack of strong spot demand suggests the market hasn’t reached the kind of broad-based enthusiasm that characterizes a full bull phase. Traders are engaged, but long-term investors seem more cautious.
The divergence between futures and spot markets highlights different investor strategies. Some traders are taking short-term speculative positions, betting on momentum. Others are holding back, waiting to see if the rally has legs. The cautious behavior among spot buyers indicates a wait-and-see approach. Nobody wants to buy the top, and the memory of February and March losses is still fresh. Until spot demand picks up significantly, the rally remains vulnerable to corrections.
Bitcoin’s rise since April has been impressive, but the market environment remains complex. The shift from net losses to net profits marks a critical inflection point, showing how the rally has restored profitability for many holders. But the current unrealized profit margins, the highest since June 2025, create pressure to sell. If enough holders decide to cash out, the market could face downward pressure pretty quickly.
Historically, such profit margins have prompted investors to secure gains. The incentive to lock in profits increases when unrealized gains reach elevated levels. That’s basic human psychology. Traders who watched their portfolios bleed in February and March are now sitting on gains and thinking about taking chips off the table. The question is whether enough holders will sell to trigger a correction, or if new demand will absorb the selling pressure.
The market’s speculative nature is clear from the continued expansion of perpetual futures demand. That segment has been the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price increase since April. But speculation cuts both ways. Leverage can amplify gains, but it can also amplify losses. If the market turns, leveraged positions could get liquidated fast, creating a cascade effect that pushes prices lower. The dynamics between spot and futures markets will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming weeks.
Despite the ongoing rally, caution is warranted. The combination of high unrealized profits, weak spot demand, and futures-driven momentum creates a delicate balance. The market hasn’t reached a distributional peak yet, which means there’s still room for upside. But the risks of a correction are real. Investors who bought in April are sitting on solid gains, and the temptation to sell will grow if prices stall or reverse.
The current conditions could lead to significant market corrections, although no peak is evident yet. Traders are monitoring exchange inflows, spot demand, and futures positioning for signs of where the market is headed. For now, the rally continues, but the foundation feels shaky. Bitcoin’s price action over the next few weeks will reveal whether this is the start of a sustained bull market or just a temporary bounce in a longer bear cycle.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much profit did Bitcoin holders realize on May 4?
Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of 14,600 BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 2025 when Bitcoin exceeded $90,000.
What is the current 30-day net profit for Bitcoin holders?
Bitcoin holders are experiencing net profits of 20,000 BTC on a 30-day basis, a reversal from the net losses seen in February and March 2026.
Why are unrealized profits a risk for the market?
Unrealized profits are at their highest since June 2025, creating an incentive for investors to lock in gains, which could trigger market corrections if enough holders decide to sell.
