Ethereum (ETH) is holding below $2,000, leaving many investors underwater as the downtrend extends into February 2026.
Despite the sustained weakness, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key question: Is their confidence driven by narrative or sentiment, or is there another factor behind their conviction?
Ethereum’s Pain Reaches 9th Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?
In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), BitMine highlighted the research by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, focusing on Ethereum’s realized price. This is an on-chain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins currently in circulation.
According to the data, Ethereum’s realized price stands at $2,241. At the time of the analysis, the asset was trading near $1,934.
This leaves the average holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s model, the “loss for realized price was 22%.”
The analysis compared the current drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as much as 39% below its realized price. In 2025, the discount reached approximately 21%.
“If we apply this ‘loss’ to the current realized ETH price of $2,241, we get implied ‘lows’ for ETH. Using 2022, this implies $1,367. Using 2025, this implies $1,770,” the analysis noted.
Using a decile analysis, the post revealed that the current drawdown falls into the 9th decile (extremely high). For context, a decile analysis is a quantitative method used in statistics, finance, and marketing to segment a dataset into 10 equal-sized groups (deciles) based on the distribution of a specific variable.
The data suggests that the median 12-month forward return in this decile was approximately 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In other words, in most historical instances when ETH reached similar drawdown levels, it was trading higher one year later.
“Is this the bottom? Seems like we are closing in on that low. Looking beyond the near-term, the risk/reward for ETH is positive,” the post read.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring feature of Ethereum’s price history. Since 2018, ETH has experienced eight separate declines of 50% or more from local highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly once per year.
In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.
“ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from major lows. This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026. The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines. Think back to 2025, the single best entry points in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply due to tariff concerns,” Lee said.
Ethereum Recovery Could Be Critical for BitMine’s $7 Billion Underwater Position
If Ethereum delivers a sustained recovery with strong upside returns, it could represent a meaningful inflection point for investors, particularly BitMine. The company’s unrealized losses have expanded to approximately $7 billion, according to CryptoQuant data.
At the same time, BitMine appears to be reinforcing its bullish stance through continued accumulation. Lookonchain reported that the firm purchased 10,000 ETH from Kraken today.
This transaction followed a much larger single-day acquisition of 35,000 ETH. BitMine acquired 20,000 ETH from BitGo and 15,000 ETH from FalconX.
Taken together, the purchases suggest that despite mounting unrealized losses, BitMine is positioning for a potential upside scenario rather than reducing exposure.
