Bitcoin developers have a six-to-12-month window to establish a quantum-security plan before the threat weighs more heavily on value.
According to Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin’s price could rise 30% to 50% in a day if developers agree on a roadmap to protect the blockchain against quantum computers.
He also warned that delays in addressing the threat could weigh on the asset’s valuation.
Edwards Sees Quantum Security as a Potential Bitcoin Catalyst
Speaking to BMTV, Edwards described the quantum threat as tangible within a typical two- to three-year investment horizon. Bitcoin developers have yet to reach a consensus on a path forward, he noted, despite early-stage proposals intended to help prepare the network.
“If they kind of align and say, okay, this is the roadmap that we’re going to do, or this is the signature schemes that we’re going to probably implement in the next sort of 12 months or 18 months or what have you,” Edwards said, “I think that results in a significant repricing of Bitcoin up.”
He estimated that a concrete plan from Bitcoin Core developers could produce a 30% to 50% price move in one day as investors reassess the threat. The next six to 12 months could therefore be positive for BTC if development progresses. Failure to make headway would leave the network increasingly exposed as technology advances, prompting Edwards to reconsider Bitcoin’s fair value.
Coinbase has also outlined requirements for post-quantum security, arguing that any new signature design must account for transaction fees and the cost of validating transactions across the network. Its October 13 blog discussed possible technical approaches, including hybrid signatures during a transition.
Rates and Mining Data Complicate the Outlook
BTC was trading around $81,000 at the time of writing, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, with a daily range of $80,400 to $84,000. In the past week, it lost over 2%, although it is up more than 4% from a month ago, while sitting roughly 36% below its all-time high.
According to Edwards, interest rates are a short-term liquidity headwind, though the CEO doubts they will stay high for long because the inflation behind them comes mostly from oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict.
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Mining data provides another reason for cautious optimism. Bitcoin’s hash rate, a measure of computing power committed to secure the network, began recovering four to six weeks ago after a prolonged decline. Edwards views that recovery as evidence that the cycle bottom may be in, although miners shifting capacity toward AI makes future hash rate trends harder to interpret.
He also warned that AI could accelerate quantum development, even though he considers current fears about AI independently breaking Bitcoin’s encryption premature.
