Key Takeaways
- A major supply headwind persists as 64 million SUI tokens were unlocked on March 1.
- Funding rates remain positive despite consolidation, signaling that long positions are overcrowded.
- To invalidate the bearish trend, SUI requires a daily close above the $1.05 resistance region.
SUI is caught in one of the more treacherous setups in the current altcoin market.
Notably, the relentless supply dilution has left bulls exposed on multiple fronts.
Trading near $0.96 after a modest 4.8% bounce, SUI’s price remains weighed down by an 18% decline over the past 30 days, and the structural headwinds have not cleared. If anything, they are intensifying.
Here is what is keeping the SUI price suppressed and what could be next for the altcoin.
The Unlock Continues to Crush SUI
The most immediate pressure point is the 64 million SUI tokens unlocking on March 1, 2026.
For context, this is not a one-off event. SUI’s recurring monthly unlock schedule creates a perpetual overhang, where experienced market participants routinely front-run the supply release by selling in anticipation.
On several occasions, this has compressed the SUI price before the unlock even officially arrives.
While SUI’s Trading volume, which recently surpassed $770 billion cumulatively, gives it a stronger capacity to absorb unlocks, the current pace of supply dilution is outrunning organic demand.
Therefore, it has become challenging for the altcoin to maintain mild gains. For instance, SUI’s price rallied above $1 on March 2.
As of this writing, it has dropped below the sane, psychological zone
Bullish Signal or Hidden Bear Warning?
Perhaps the most concerning element of SUI’s current setup is visible in its derivatives market.
Funding rates are currently positive, meaning leveraged longs are paying fees to short sellers to keep their bets open.
On the surface, this might appear to reflect bullish. In reality, during an established downtrend, it is a warning sign.
A persistently positive funding rate in a declining market signals that the field is overcrowded with leveraged bulls.
So, if SUI’s price fails to break through overhead resistance, leveraged positions are forced to liquidate.
Consequently, this could create a self-reinforcing cascade of sell pressure known as a long squeeze. The conditions for exactly that scenario are currently in place.
SUI Price Analysis: Levels to Watch
The technical picture reinforces the caution.
At the time of writing, SUI is currently trading below all major daily moving averages. The $1.01 to $1.05 zone is the critical resistance region.
As shown below, SUI’s price is clinging to its last support level. The token trades at $0.95, pressing against the zero Fib floor at $0.78.
In addition, every Fibonacci level has been broken. The 20-EMA ($0.95) and 50-EMA ($1.12) are both overhead and sloping down, indicating a bearish trend.
However, a support zone (green) near $1.35–$1.40 held through November and December before finally giving way in January.
At the time of writing, that level is now resistance.
By the look of things, SUI bulls need a daily close above the 20-EMA at $0.95 to slow the bleeding. The first meaningful, if successful, target could be $1.64 (0.236 Fib).
But the trend remains firmly down until the EMA stack reverses.
On the downside, the $0.90 to $0.95 support band is the immediate floor bulls must defend.
A breakdown below that zone opens the door to the $0.88 level, which represents the next significant historical demand area.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
